There’s a saying that the leader in any race has a big target on his back. Any new leader to emerge inherits that target and, in some kinds of races, even the observers can take their shots.
This is certainly the case with Blu-ray right now where the last couple of weeks have seen two separate reports about temporary and/or prolonged gloom.
The first shot at the new leader was from research firm, ABI, who said that demand for Blu-ray players will be low until those players hit the $200 mark. This is common knowledge if you’ve been following the format war, and as an HD DVD owner, you may already fall into this customer profile. The prospect of starting over or transitioning to the other format is made less palatable when you consider how much more expensive it’s going to be to get the player in the first place. If Blu-ray players were far less expensive, then more of us in the HD DVD crowd would gone purple and sooner.
Getting back to the ABI report, they think it’s not going to be until sometime in 2009 that Blu-ray really picks up steam and wider adoption.
The more recent shot at Blu-ray comes from NPD research numbers and a story that’s picked up a lot of momentum all over the web, suggesting that Sony’s victory lap for winning the format war is a short one. Recent sales tracking data from the NPD group showed a significant drop in standalone Blu-ray player sales in the last few months, with a big 40% dip in February.
If the format war was still going strong, we’d expect Team Blu to come back and point to strong PS3 sales and say that overall adoption of machines with Blu-ray drives in them is still very healthy — and they’d be right. This would be followed by the HD DVD camp sticking to their guns about standalone player sales being a better indicator of high-def movie adoption, and they’d also be right. Team Blu would also come back (and they have) to point out that sales of all kinds of things are usually low following all the big shopping that happens at Christmas time.
Another explanation given for the weakness in Blu-ray player sales is that there’s a supply problem, and that the small numbers are actually a reflection of stores not having enough in stock, and not so much that people aren’t interested. This could be true. It’s the same explanation given for why Xbox 360 sales were a little soft in those last few months too.
And if I recall, there were also a lot of headlines in March about a general increase in the pricing on Blu-ray players. While the MSRP did not change, discounts and deals were rare. Either way, it wasn’t the sort of news that drives customers to stores.
Many HD DVD owners find a good reason to smirk at these recent developments because it’s a relief to finally hear some bad news that’s not about their own format. Instead of taking pot-shots at HD DVD, reporters and analysts now focus all of their scrutiny and nastiness on the new target bearer.